New COVID-19 mortality model

Terry Narine, FCIA, has developed a new COVID-19 mortality model which works to capture ultimate extra deaths as a result of COVID-19. The tool provides an estimate of extra deaths by age and sex for any chosen country where statistics are readily available.

The COVID-19 mortality model can be used to estimate extra deaths for pricing, valuation, stress testing, and other work. When using the tool, it is important to note that extra deaths is a different concept than mortality rate – the latter referring to the rate of death over a specific period of time, typically one year. The extra deaths reflected in this tool apply for the duration of the pandemic, therefore care should be taken in converting these extra deaths to an annual mortality rate.

The comprehensive tool also includes several additional features such as an Instructions tab, the Extra Mortality tab, the Raw Data sheet, the Fatality Rate sheet as well as the Live Data sheet. These tables will be updated periodically as newer data emerge.

Use the COVID-19 Mortality Model.

This new COVID-19 mortality model is also available as a CIA member’s paper.

This article originally appeared on the CIA COVID-19 Hub.

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