Actuaries understand that developing estimates of future economic variables is a core actuarial skill which normally combines data analysis with professional judgment. A useful technique known as the Real Time Delphi method is another means by which to accomplish this.
The Real Time Delphi method leverages the judgment of experts to arrive at a consensus forecast for future variables. A joint study published in May 2020 in collaboration with the Society of Actuaries (SOA) entitled Real Time Delphi Study of Four Economic Variables applied this process to four key economic variables. One of the project’s main objectives was to demonstrate the use of future research methods to complement traditional actuarial forecasting techniques. You can access the executive summary here.
In this 72nd episode of Seeing Beyond Risk, our host Jill Harper is joined by two members of the project oversight group Max Rudolph, FSA, MAAA, CERA, and Steve Easson, FCIA, FSA, CFA. They dive into the paper and take us through the ins and outs of this joint CIA–SOA research project.
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